Thompson closing the social gap in WI Senate Race

By JD Chang

Here’s how close the Wisconsin Senate Race is.

RCP shows an average of Baldwin by 0.3% which is basically even:

TrendPo Rank today has Baldwin TR-81 and Thompson TR-99 which is a 1% difference in buzz (18 rank difference out of 1607 national politicians)

The historical graphs for both:

(RCP over the last two weeks)

(TrendPo Rank over the last two weeks)

Their news metrics are essentially trending the same:

(National Media news mentions)

(Beltway Media news mentions)

(News Article sentiment)

With news trending and article sentiment looking the exact same, we can try to find some difference in social numbers:

(FB Gap over the last two weeks)

(TW Gap over the last two weeks)

(FB Likes over the last month)

The social numbers show an advantage for Tommy Thompson. He passed Baldin’s Facebook Page Likes two weeks ago and has continued that momentum in Facebook Talked Abouts and Twitter Followers. These charts mirror that of the RCP’s closing gap, but are the two things really correlated?

Does social traffic momentum actually sync up with traditional polling results?

We’re not sure ourselves, but if Tommy Thompson continues his social momentum with all news being equal,  we predict a narrow victory for Tommy Thompson in next Tuesday’s Wisconsin Senate race.


National Media includes: WSJ, LATimes, NYTimes, WaPo, HuffPost, Fox News, CNN, USA Today
Beltway Media includes: Politico, The Hill, Roll Call
FB Likes is the number of Facebook Likes on each person’s page.
Facebook Talked Abouts is the number of unique users who have created a story about a page in a 7 day period.
TW Gap is the number of Twitter Followers gained each day on each person’s Twitter account.

(You can see all of TrendPo Pro’s chart data by subscribing to a free TrendPo Pro user account)


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