3 Days To Go — TrendPo’s Senate predictions matching 78% of Nate Silver’s 538 Blog & RCP Polls using only news, social, and sentiment


By JD Chang

With just a few days to go until the elections, we’re going to start matching up our daily ranks with those of RCP Polls and of Nate Silver’s 538 Blog. We use 538 Blog because it lists poll odds for every Senate race, whereas RCP showcases the most publicized and/or closest.

Again, TrendPo runs a daily algorithm that scrapes National Media, Beltway Media, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, and sentiment analysis. There is no polling, no sampling, and no bias. It’s a calculation we run every day against every politician on ballot for next Tuesday. We will continue it to run post Nov. 6th to track buzz and movement of all winning candidates and current incumbents.

NOTE #1: In the charts below, TrendPo Rank means the rank position of that politician out of 1608 Governor, Senator, House members: both challenger and incumbents. #1 is the best, #1608 is the worst.  To get higher on the rank, you need to gain “buzz” (either news momentum, good sentiment analysis, or increasing social movement on Facebook and Twitter) over the last week. The TrendPo Rank only calculates scores for the last 7 days, so in short, it’s measuring buzz over the last week.

NOTE #2: On TrendPo Rank page, the (+) and (-) numbers shows the day over day change in rank position. For example, Richard Carmona TR 92 (+12) means that today he is ranked 92 and yesterday he was ranked 80 for a +12 change today.

Here’s the list of all 33 Senate Races with corresponding 538 Blog and RCP Polls:

ARIZONA:
Richard Carmona                 TR-92  *TR = TrendPo Rank
Jeff Flake                            TR-107
TrendPo Rank Difference:     15 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Flake +4.1
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

CALIFORNIA:
Dianne Feinstein                  TR-119  *TR = TrendPo Rank
Elizabeth Emken                  TR-173
TrendPo Rank Difference:     54 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Feinstein +21.3
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

CONNECTICUT:
Linda McMahon                   TR-101 *TR = TrendPo Rank
Chris Murphy                       TR-169
TrendPo Rank Difference:     68 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Murphy +6.7
RCP Poll Average:                Murphy +5.0
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

DELAWARE:
Tom Carper                        TR-272
Kevin Wade                         TR-279
TrendPo Rank Difference:     7 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Carper +34.6
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

FLORIDA:
Connie Mack                        TR-42
Bill Nelson                           TR-104
TrendPo Rank Difference:     62 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Nelson +8
RCP Poll Average:                Nelson +7
RCP Poll Rankings:               Leans Democrat

HAWAII:
Mazie Hirono                      TR- 152
Linda Lingle                        TR- 202
TrendPo Rank Difference:    50 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Hirono +14.8
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

INDIANA:
Richard Mourdock                TR-9
Joe Donnelly                        TR-30
TrendPo Rank Difference:     21 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Donnelly +2.5
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

MAINE:
Angus King                          TR-160
Cynthia Dill                          TR-201
Charles Summers                 TR-563
TrendPo Rank Difference:     41 / 403 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             King +17.1
RCP Poll Average:                King +17.3
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MARYLAND:
Ben Cardin                           TR-210
Daniel Bongino                     TR-519
TrendPo Rank Difference:     309 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Cardin +22.7
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MASSACHUSETTS:
Scott Brown                         TR-13
Elizabeth Warren                  TR-472
TrendPo Rank Difference:     459 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Warren +4.4
RCP Poll Average:                Warre +4.8
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

MICHIGAN:
Debbie Stabenow                TR-140
Pete Hoekstra                     TR-211
TrendPo Rank Difference:     71 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Stabenow +13.5
RCP Poll Average:                Stabenow +15.6
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

MINNESOTA:
Amy Klobuchar                   TR-193
Kurt Bills                            TR-282
TrendPo Rank Difference:     89 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Klobuchar 26.2
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MISSISSIPPI:
Thomas Cramer                  TR-141
Roger Wicker                      TR-264
TrendPo Rank Difference:     123 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Wicker +33.8
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MISSOURI:
Claire McCaskill                    TR-71
Todd Akin                            TR-84
TrendPo Rank Difference:     13 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             McCaskill +3.8
RCP Poll Average:                McCaksill +5.0
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

MONTANA:
Denny Rehberg                     TR-128
Jon Tester                            TR-142
TrendPo Rank Difference:     14 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Rehberg +2.3
RCP Poll Average:                Tie
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

NEBRASKA:
Deb Fischer                         TR-80
Bob Kerrey                          TR-94
TrendPo Rank Difference:     14 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Fischer +8.1
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Leans GOP

NEVADA:
Shelley Berkley                    TR-102
Dean Heller                         TR-114
TrendPo Rank Difference:     12 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Heller +2.9%
RCP Poll Average:                Heller +3.5%
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

NEW JERSEY:
Bob Menendez                    TR-401
Joseph Kyrillos                    TR-575
TrendPo Rank Difference:    174 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Menendez +15
RCP Poll Average:                Menendez +19.5
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

NEW MEXICO:
Martin Heinrich                    TR-203
Heather Wilson                    TR-217
TrendPo Rank Difference:     14 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Heinrich +6.8
RCP Poll Average:                Heinrich +10.6
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

NEW YORK:
Kirsten Gillibrand                 TR-185
Wendy Long                        TR-278
TrendPo Rank Difference:     93 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Gillibrand +38.6
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

NORTH DAKOTA:
Rick Berg                            TR-125
Heidi Heitkamp                    TR-225
TrendPo Rank Difference:     100 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Berg +5.6
RCP Poll Average:                Berg +5.7
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

OHIO:
Sherrod Brown                    TR-22
Josh Mandel                        TR-61
TrendPo Rank Difference:     39 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Brown +5.8
RCP Poll Average:                Brown +5.2
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

PENNSYLVANIA:
Bob Casey                           TR-99
Tom Smith                           TR-118
TrendPo Rank Difference:     19 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Casey +7.5
RCP Poll Average:                Casey +5.2
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

RHODE ISLAND:
Sheldon Whitehouse             TR-215
Barry Hinckley                      TR-231
TrendPo Rank Difference:     16 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Whitehouse +18.6
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Safe Democrat

TENNESSEE:
Bob Corker                         TR-164
Mark Clayton                       TR-285
TrendPo Rank Difference:     121 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Corker +23.4
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

TEXAS:
Ted Cruz                             TR-137
Paul Sadler                          TR-239
TrendPo Rank Difference:     102 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Cruz +12.5
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

UTAH:
Orrin Hatch                         TR-151
Scott Howell                        TR-274
TrendPo Rank Difference:     121 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Hatch +35.4
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

VERMONT:
Bernie Sanders                    TR-419
John MacGovern                  TR-423
TrendPo Rank Difference:     4 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Sanders 29.2
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

VIRGINIA:
Tim Kaine                           TR-26
George Allen                       TR-58
TrendPo Rank Difference:     32 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Kaine +3
RCP Poll Average:                Kaine +0.8
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

WEST VIRGINIA:
Joe Manchin                        TR-189
John Raese                         TR-207
TrendPo Rank Difference:     18 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Manchin +11.6
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

WASHINGTON:
Maria Cantwell                    TR-229
Michael Baumgartner           TR-276
TrendPo Rank Difference:     47 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Cantwell +18.8
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

WISCONSIN:
Tammy Baldwin                  TR-68
Tommy Thompson              TR-88
TrendPo Rank Difference:    20 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Baldwin +2.2
RCP Poll Average:                Baldwin +1
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

WYOMING:
John Barrasso                     TR-190
Tim Chesnut                       TR-284
TrendPo Rank Difference:     94 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Barrasso +44.8
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

GALLERY:

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