2 Days To Go — TrendPo sees Senate races breaking for Carmona, McMahon, S. Brown, Mack, and Berkley


By JD Chang

With just a few days to go until the elections, we’re going to start matching up our daily ranks with those of RCP Polls and of Nate Silver’s 538 Blog. We use 538 Blog because it lists poll odds for every Senate race, whereas RCP showcases the most publicized and/or closest.

Again, TrendPo runs a daily algorithm that scrapes National Media, Beltway Media, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, and sentiment analysis. There is no polling, no sampling, and no bias. It’s a calculation we run every day against every politician on ballot for next Tuesday. We will continue it to run post Nov. 6th to track buzz and movement of all winning candidates and current incumbents.

NOTE #1: In the charts below, TrendPo Rank means the rank position of that politician out of 1608 Governor, Senator, House members: both challenger and incumbents. #1 is the best, #1608 is the worst.  To get higher on the rank, you need to gain “buzz” (either news momentum, good sentiment analysis, or increasing social movement on Facebook and Twitter) over the last week. The TrendPo Rank only calculates scores for the last 7 days, so in short, it’s measuring buzz over the last week.

NOTE #2: On TrendPo Rank page, the (+) and (-) numbers shows the day over day change in rank position. For example, Richard Carmona TR 92 (+12) means that today he is ranked 92 and yesterday he was ranked 80 for a +12 change today.

Here’s the list of all 33 Senate Races with corresponding 538 Blog and RCP Polls:

ARIZONA:
Richard Carmona                 TR-110  *TR = TrendPo Rank
Jeff Flake                            TR-121
TrendPo Rank Difference:     11 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Flake +4.3
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

CALIFORNIA:
Dianne Feinstein                  TR-117  *TR = TrendPo Rank
Elizabeth Emken                  TR-198
TrendPo Rank Difference:     81 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Feinstein +21
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

CONNECTICUT:
Linda McMahon                   TR-100 *TR = TrendPo Rank
Chris Murphy                       TR-172
TrendPo Rank Difference:     72 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Murphy +6.7
RCP Poll Average:                Murphy +5.0
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

DELAWARE:
Tom Carper                        TR-327
Kevin Wade                         TR-330
TrendPo Rank Difference:     3 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Carper +34.6
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

FLORIDA:
Connie Mack                        TR-60
Bill Nelson                           TR-130
TrendPo Rank Difference:     70 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Nelson +7.9
RCP Poll Average:                Nelson +6.9
RCP Poll Rankings:               Leans Democrat

HAWAII:
Linda Lingle                        TR- 57
Mazie Hirono                      TR- 192
TrendPo Rank Difference:    135 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Hirono +14.7
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

INDIANA:
Richard Mourdock                TR-10
Joe Donnelly                        TR-95
TrendPo Rank Difference:     85 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Donnelly +2.5
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

MAINE:
Charles Summers                 TR-39
Angus King                          TR-164
Cynthia Dill                          TR-203
TrendPo Rank Difference:     125 / 164 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             King +16.8
RCP Poll Average:                King +17
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MARYLAND:
Ben Cardin                           TR-236
Daniel Bongino                     TR-538
TrendPo Rank Difference:     302 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Cardin +22.6
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MASSACHUSETTS:
Scott Brown                         TR-12
Elizabeth Warren                  TR-508
TrendPo Rank Difference:     496 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Warren +4.4
RCP Poll Average:                Warre +4.8
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

MICHIGAN:
Debbie Stabenow                TR-149
Pete Hoekstra                     TR-229
TrendPo Rank Difference:     80 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Stabenow +13.3
RCP Poll Average:                Stabenow +13.2
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

MINNESOTA:
Amy Klobuchar                   TR-208
Kurt Bills                            TR-486
TrendPo Rank Difference:     278 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Klobuchar 26.2
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MISSISSIPPI:
Thomas Cramer                  TR-157
Roger Wicker                      TR-305
TrendPo Rank Difference:     148 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Wicker +33.7
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MISSOURI:
Claire McCaskill                    TR-51
Todd Akin                            TR-134
TrendPo Rank Difference:     83 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             McCaskill +3.6
RCP Poll Average:                McCaksill +5.0
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

MONTANA:
Jon Tester                            TR-131
Denny Rehberg                     TR-133
TrendPo Rank Difference:      2 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Rehberg +2.4
RCP Poll Average:                Rehberg +0.4
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

NEBRASKA:
Bob Kerrey                          TR-92
Deb Fischer                         TR-94
TrendPo Rank Difference:     2 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Fischer +8.1
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Leans GOP

NEVADA:
Shelley Berkley                    TR-107
Dean Heller                         TR-150
TrendPo Rank Difference:     43 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Heller +2.8%
RCP Poll Average:                Heller +3.5%
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

NEW JERSEY:
Bob Menendez                    TR-431
Joseph Kyrillos                    TR-580
TrendPo Rank Difference:    149 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Menendez +14.7
RCP Poll Average:                Menendez +19.5
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

NEW MEXICO:
Martin Heinrich                    TR-62
Heather Wilson                    TR-282
TrendPo Rank Difference:     220 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Heinrich +6.8
RCP Poll Average:                Heinrich +10.6
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

NEW YORK:
Kirsten Gillibrand                 TR-188
Wendy Long                        TR-319
TrendPo Rank Difference:     131 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Gillibrand +38.5
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

NORTH DAKOTA:
Heidi Heitkamp                    TR-120
Rick Berg                            TR-151
TrendPo Rank Difference:     31 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Berg +5.8
RCP Poll Average:                Berg +5.7
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

OHIO:
Sherrod Brown                    TR-54
Josh Mandel                        TR-98
TrendPo Rank Difference:     44 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Brown +5.3
RCP Poll Average:                Brown +5.2
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

PENNSYLVANIA:
Bob Casey                           TR-128
Tom Smith                           TR-158
TrendPo Rank Difference:     30 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Casey +6.9
RCP Poll Average:                Casey +5.4
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

RHODE ISLAND:
Sheldon Whitehouse             TR-304
Barry Hinckley                      TR-453
TrendPo Rank Difference:     149 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Whitehouse +18.6
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Safe Democrat

TENNESSEE:
Bob Corker                         TR-173
Mark Clayton                       TR-337
TrendPo Rank Difference:     164 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Corker +23.5
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

TEXAS:
Ted Cruz                             TR-116
Paul Sadler                          TR-272
TrendPo Rank Difference:     156 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Cruz +12.5
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

UTAH:
Orrin Hatch                         TR-154
Scott Howell                        TR-483
TrendPo Rank Difference:     329 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Hatch +36
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

VERMONT:
Bernie Sanders                    TR-129
John MacGovern                  TR-211
TrendPo Rank Difference:     82 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Sanders 29.1
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

VIRGINIA:
Tim Kaine                           TR-31
George Allen                       TR-70
TrendPo Rank Difference:     39 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Kaine +3
RCP Poll Average:                Kaine +0.8
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

WEST VIRGINIA:
Joe Manchin                        TR-204
John Raese                         TR-221
TrendPo Rank Difference:     17 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Manchin +11.6
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

WASHINGTON:
Maria Cantwell                    TR-243
Michael Baumgartner           TR-328
TrendPo Rank Difference:     85 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Cantwell +18.2
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

WISCONSIN:
Tammy Baldwin                  TR-80
Tommy Thompson              TR-97
TrendPo Rank Difference:    17 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Baldwin +2.2
RCP Poll Average:                Baldwin +2.2
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

WYOMING:
John Barrasso                     TR-247
Tim Chesnut                       TR-488
TrendPo Rank Difference:     241 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Barrasso +45
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

GALLERY:

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