The closest Romney got based on social, news, and sentiment momentum was this week…


By JD Chang

Each day TrendPo tracks news, sentiment, and social buzz on all national politicians. We do this by running a daily algorithm that scrapes National Media, Beltway Media, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, and sentiment analysis. There is no polling, no sampling, and no bias.

From this, we can look specifically at two candidates and how close or far they are away from each other based on these inputs. For the entirety of this year, Barack Obama has been #1 in the rank and Mitt Romney #2. This is expected because Barack Obama is also President Obama so he has a built in advantage of more news mentions and a larger social presence from his time in office. Also, Mitt Romney does not have the social followers that Obama has gained from 2008 and beyond. He has to build that (no pun intended).

But we can dig deeper into the data and see how close their “buzz” gets to each other.

This is the TrendPo Rank Raw score since middle of September (TrendPo Rank Raw score is the raw score that makes up the rank):

It’s safe to say that Barack Obama was riding a high wave of “buzz” after the DNC speech straight into the first debate. Then, after the 1st debate, Romney generated a lot of buzz from his debate performance that got him very close to Obama around October 7th. The VP debates were next, and although most pundits felt that was a tie, it was a tie between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan. Obama was still able to get a lot of buzz, presumably from the media tying Biden’s “save” of Obama’s 1st debate. However, Romney was not able to gain the same buzz from Paul Ryan’s performance as a lot of the national conversation was around how Paul Ryan successfully showed himself to be a viable future Vice President.

What happened next is particularly striking on the chart.

During Hurricane Sandy, Barack Obama’s buzz fell to around the same level as Mitt Romney and nearly fell below him:

Looking at the underlying data:

(National Media)

(Beltway Media)

(Facebook Gap)

(TW Gap)

In all aspects President Obama saw a slight fall in news coverage and social presence during the hurricane. But how did Mitt Romney capitalize on that to gain so much ground in the TrendPo Rank Raw Score?

Well, the answer is that he didn’t. Since TrendPo ranks ALL national politicians in one rank, it wasn’t so much the fact that Mitt Romney gained more coverage, it was more that other people gained a lot more coverage than both the two candidates. Add that to the diminished coverage on Barack Obama over those few days and you basically have Obama coming back to the pack more.

Look at Barack Obama vs. Chris Christie and Andrew Cuomo:

(TrendPo Rank – Obama vs. Christie)

(TrendPo Rank Raw Score – Obama vs. Christie)

(TrendPo Rank – Obama vs. Cuomo)

(TrendPo Rank Raw Score – Obama vs. Cuomo)

Chris Christie rose from a TrendPo Rank of #74 to a high of #4 (his current position today) and Andrew Cuomo rose from TR-151 to TR-5 (currently today). We could do this with many other politicians (Schumer, McDonnell, others) but then you could as well by registering for a free TrendPo Pro account. 🙂

So…what does this show?

We think it shows that Obama had a weak moment where he came back to the field in terms of news and social buzz during the Hurricane Sandy storm. But it also shows that the people who gained the most from it were people like Chris Christie and Andrew Cuomo and not Mitt Romney. Some people would say that’s kind of stating the obvious, but at least now, there’s some data inputs to prove it.

DEFINITIONS:

National Media includes: WSJ, LATimes, NYTimes, WaPo, HuffPost, Fox News, CNN, USA Today
Beltway Media includes: Politico, The Hill, Roll Call
Facebook Talked Abouts is the number of unique users who have created a story about a page in a 7 day period.
TW Gap is the number of Twitter Followers gained each day on each person’s Twitter account.

(You can see all of TrendPo Pro’s chart data by subscribing to a free TrendPo Pro user account)

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2 thoughts on “The closest Romney got based on social, news, and sentiment momentum was this week…

  1. Christy November 5, 2012 at 2:35 pm Reply

    Interesting…Where can I see these numbers for myself? It’s not very clear if you’re just cherry-picking some stats.

  2. trendpo November 5, 2012 at 2:41 pm Reply

    Well…you can see the daily rank of all politicians here: http://www.trendpo.com/rank

    As for the detailed data inputs, register for a free dashboard account here:

    http://trendpo.com/trend_users/sign_up

    Then you can sort through all the data tabs (National Media, Beltway Media, Sentiment, FB Likes, FB Gap, TW Gap, etc.)

    The key here is that we don’t compare just Obama & Romney, we compare all national politicians so you can select any two incumbents or challengers to see their trend-lines.

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