1 Day To Go — TrendPo sees Senate races breaking for Carmona, McMahon, S. Brown, Mack, and Berkley


With just a few days to go until the elections, we’re going to start matching up our daily ranks with those of RCP Polls and of Nate Silver’s 538 Blog. We use 538 Blog because it lists poll odds for every Senate race, whereas RCP showcases the most publicized and/or closest.

Again, TrendPo runs a daily algorithm that scrapes National Media, Beltway Media, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, and sentiment analysis. There is no polling, no sampling, and no bias. It’s a calculation we run every day against every politician on ballot for next Tuesday. We will continue it to run post Nov. 6th to track buzz and movement of all winning candidates and current incumbents.

NOTE #1: In the charts below, TrendPo Rank means the rank position of that politician out of 1608 Governor, Senator, House members: both challenger and incumbents. #1 is the best, #1608 is the worst.  To get higher on the rank, you need to gain “buzz” (either news momentum, good sentiment analysis, or increasing social movement on Facebook and Twitter) over the last week. The TrendPo Rank only calculates scores for the last 7 days, so in short, it’s measuring buzz over the last week.

NOTE #2: On TrendPo Rank page, the (+) and (-) numbers shows the day over day change in rank position. For example, Richard Carmona TR 92 (+12) means that today he is ranked 92 and yesterday he was ranked 80 for a +12 change today.

Here’s the list of all 33 Senate Races with corresponding 538 Blog and RCP Polls:

ARIZONA:
Richard Carmona                 TR-119  *TR = TrendPo Rank
Jeff Flake                            TR-132
TrendPo Rank Difference:     13 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Flake +4.3
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

CALIFORNIA:
Dianne Feinstein                  TR-125  *TR = TrendPo Rank
Elizabeth Emken                  TR-193
TrendPo Rank Difference:     68 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Feinstein +21
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

CONNECTICUT:
Linda McMahon                   TR-98 *TR = TrendPo Rank
Chris Murphy                       TR-168
TrendPo Rank Difference:     70 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Murphy +6.7
RCP Poll Average:                Murphy +5.0
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

 

DELAWARE:
Tom Carper                        TR-88
Kevin Wade                         TR-356
TrendPo Rank Difference:     268 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Carper +34.6
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

FLORIDA:
Connie Mack                        TR-69
Bill Nelson                           TR-220
TrendPo Rank Difference:     151 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Nelson +7.9
RCP Poll Average:                Nelson +6.9
RCP Poll Rankings:               Leans Democrat

HAWAII:
Linda Lingle                        TR- 52
Mazie Hirono                      TR- 196
TrendPo Rank Difference:    144 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Hirono +14.7
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

INDIANA:
Richard Mourdock                TR-14
Joe Donnelly                        TR-101
TrendPo Rank Difference:     87 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Donnelly +2.5
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

MAINE:
Charles Summers                 TR-37
Angus King                          TR-157
Cynthia Dill                          TR-213
TrendPo Rank Difference:     120 / 176 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             King +16.8
RCP Poll Average:                King +17
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MARYLAND:
Ben Cardin                           TR-257
Daniel Bongino                     TR-531
TrendPo Rank Difference:     274 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Cardin +22.6
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MASSACHUSETTS:
Scott Brown                         TR-11
Elizabeth Warren                  TR-510
TrendPo Rank Difference:     499 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Warren +4.4
RCP Poll Average:                Warre +3.5
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

MICHIGAN:
Debbie Stabenow                TR-124
Pete Hoekstra                     TR-254
TrendPo Rank Difference:     130 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Stabenow +13.3
RCP Poll Average:                Stabenow +13.2
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

MINNESOTA:
Amy Klobuchar                   TR-221
Kurt Bills                            TR-480
TrendPo Rank Difference:    259 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Klobuchar 31.5
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MISSISSIPPI:
Thomas Cramer                  TR-159
Roger Wicker                      TR-336
TrendPo Rank Difference:    177 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Wicker +33.7
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MISSOURI:
Claire McCaskill                    TR-89
Todd Akin                            TR-273
TrendPo Rank Difference:     184 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             McCaskill +3.6
RCP Poll Average:                McCaksill +5.0
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

MONTANA:
Jon Tester                            TR-133
Denny Rehberg                     TR-143
TrendPo Rank Difference:      10 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Rehberg +2.4
RCP Poll Average:                Rehberg +0.4
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

NEBRASKA:
Bob Kerrey                          TR-83
Deb Fischer                         TR-161
TrendPo Rank Difference:     78 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Fischer +8.1
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Leans GOP

NEVADA:
Shelley Berkley                    TR-123
Dean Heller                         TR-160
TrendPo Rank Difference:     37 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Heller +2.8%
RCP Poll Average:                Heller +3.5%
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

NEW JERSEY:
Bob Menendez                    TR-425
Joseph Kyrillos                    TR-573
TrendPo Rank Difference:    148 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Menendez +14.7
RCP Poll Average:                Menendez +19.5
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

NEW MEXICO:
Martin Heinrich                    TR-73
Heather Wilson                    TR-329
TrendPo Rank Difference:     256 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Heinrich +6.8
RCP Poll Average:                Heinrich +10.6
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

NEW YORK:
Kirsten Gillibrand                 TR-180
Wendy Long                        TR-334
TrendPo Rank Difference:     154 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Gillibrand +38.5
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

NORTH DAKOTA:
Heidi Heitkamp                    TR-117
Rick Berg                            TR-134
TrendPo Rank Difference:     17 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Berg +5.8
RCP Poll Average:                Berg +5.7
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

OHIO:
Sherrod Brown                    TR-60
Josh Mandel                        TR-97
TrendPo Rank Difference:     37 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Brown +5.3
RCP Poll Average:                Brown +5.2
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

PENNSYLVANIA:
Tom Smith                           TR-120
Bob Casey                           TR-149
TrendPo Rank Difference:     29 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Casey +6.9
RCP Poll Average:                Casey +5.4
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

RHODE ISLAND:
Sheldon Whitehouse             TR-333
Barry Hinckley                      TR-473
TrendPo Rank Difference:     140 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Whitehouse +18.6
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Safe Democrat

TENNESSEE:
Mark Clayton                       TR-90
Bob Corker                         TR-186
TrendPo Rank Difference:     96 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Corker +23.5
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

TEXAS:
Ted Cruz                             TR-111
Paul Sadler                          TR-285
TrendPo Rank Difference:     174 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Cruz +12.5
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

UTAH:
Orrin Hatch                         TR-181
Scott Howell                        TR-474
TrendPo Rank Difference:     293 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Hatch +36
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

VERMONT:
Bernie Sanders                    TR-12
John MacGovern                  TR-439
TrendPo Rank Difference:     427 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Sanders 29.1
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

VIRGINIA:
Tim Kaine                           TR-21
George Allen                       TR-62
TrendPo Rank Difference:     41 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Kaine +3
RCP Poll Average:                Kaine +1.8
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

WEST VIRGINIA:
Joe Manchin                        TR-210
John Raese                         TR-234
TrendPo Rank Difference:     24 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Manchin +11.6
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

WASHINGTON:
Maria Cantwell                    TR-248
Michael Baumgartner           TR-330
TrendPo Rank Difference:     82 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Cantwell +18.2
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

WISCONSIN:
Tammy Baldwin                  TR-63
Tommy Thompson              TR-103
TrendPo Rank Difference:    40 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Baldwin +2.2
RCP Poll Average:                Baldwin +2.2
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

WYOMING:
John Barrasso                     TR-264
Tim Chesnut                       TR-481
TrendPo Rank Difference:     217 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Barrasso +45
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

 

GALLERY:

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