Election Day! — How close did TrendPo get predicting Gov. races based solely on news and social buzz?


ELECTION DAY, USA. We’re going to match up our daily ranks with those of RCP Polls where available for the Gubernatorial races.

Again, TrendPo runs a daily algorithm that scrapes National Media, Beltway Media, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, and sentiment analysis. There is no polling, no sampling, and no bias. It’s a calculation we run every day against every politician on ballot for next Tuesday. We will continue it to run post Nov. 6th to track buzz and movement of all winning candidates and current incumbents.

NOTE #1: In the charts below, TrendPo Rank means the rank position of that politician out of 1608 Governor, Senator, House members: both challenger and incumbents. #1 is the best, #1608 is the worst.  To get higher on the rank, you need to gain “buzz” (either news momentum, good sentiment analysis, or increasing social movement on Facebook and Twitter) over the last week. The TrendPo Rank only calculates scores for the last 7 days, so in short, it’s measuring buzz over the last week.

NOTE #2: On TrendPo Rank page, the (+) and (-) numbers shows the day over day change in rank position. For example, Jack Markell TR 92 (+12) means that today he is ranked 92 and yesterday he was ranked 80 for a +12 change today.

 

Here’s the list of all 11 Gubernatorial Races with corresponding RCP Polls:


DELAWARE:

Jack Markell                         TR-175
Jeff Cragg                            TR-370
TrendPo Rank Difference:     94 Ranks

RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

INDIANA:
Kevin Gregg                         TR-217
Mike Pence                          TR-424
TrendPo Rank Difference:     207 Ranks

RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely GOP

MISSOURI:
Jay Nixon                             TR-213
Dave Spence                        TR-282
TrendPo Rank Difference:     69 Ranks

RCP Poll Average:                Nixon +7
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

 

MONTANA:
Steve Bullock                       TR-273
Rick Hill                               TR-337
TrendPo Rank Difference:     64 Ranks

RCP Poll Average:                Hill +1.7
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

NORTH CAROLINA:
Pat McCrory                        TR- 335
Walter Dalton                      TR- 372
TrendPo Rank Difference:    37 Ranks

RCP Poll Average:                McCrory +15.3
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely GOP

NORTH DAKOTA:
Jack Dalrymple                    TR-328
Ryan Taylor                         TR-500
TrendPo Rank Difference:     172 Ranks

RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Safe GOP

NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Maggie Hassan                    TR-222
Angus King                          TR-319
TrendPo Rank Difference:     97 Ranks

RCP Poll Average:                Hassan +2.4
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

UTAH:
Gary Herbert                       TR-83
Peter Cooke                         TR-376
TrendPo Rank Difference:     293 Ranks

RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

VERMONT:
Peter Shumlin                     TR-181
Randy Brock                       TR-274
TrendPo Rank Difference:    93 Ranks

RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

WASHINGTON:
Jay Inslee                           TR-173
Rob McKenna                      TR-429
TrendPo Rank Difference:     256 Ranks

RCP Poll Average:                Inslee 1.0
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

WEST VIRGINA:
Earl Ray Tomblin                  TR-141
Bill Maloney                         TR-250
TrendPo Rank Difference:     109 Ranks

RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

 

GALLERY:

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