Election Day! — How close did TrendPo get predicting Sen. races based solely on news and social buzz?


By JD Chang

ELECTION DAY, USA. We’re matching up our daily ranks with those of RCP Polls and of Nate Silver’s 538 Blog. We use 538 Blog because it lists poll odds for every Senate race, whereas RCP showcases the most publicized and/or closest.

Again, TrendPo runs a daily algorithm that scrapes National Media, Beltway Media, Facebook pages, Twitter profiles, and sentiment analysis. There is no polling, no sampling, and no bias. It’s a calculation we run every day against every politician on ballot for next Tuesday. We will continue it to run post Nov. 6th to track buzz and movement of all winning candidates and current incumbents.

NOTE #1: In the charts below, TrendPo Rank means the rank position of that politician out of 1608 Governor, Senator, House members: both challenger and incumbents. #1 is the best, #1608 is the worst.  To get higher on the rank, you need to gain “buzz” (either news momentum, good sentiment analysis, or increasing social movement on Facebook and Twitter) over the last week. The TrendPo Rank only calculates scores for the last 7 days, so in short, it’s measuring buzz over the last week.

NOTE #2: On TrendPo Rank page, the (+) and (-) numbers shows the day over day change in rank position. For example, Richard Carmona TR 92 (+12) means that today he is ranked 92 and yesterday he was ranked 80 for a +12 change today.

Here’s the list of all 33 Senate Races with corresponding 538 Blog and RCP Polls:


ARIZONA:

Richard Carmona                 TR-126  *TR = TrendPo Rank
Jeff Flake                            TR-128
TrendPo Rank Difference:     2 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Flake +5.1
RCP Poll Average:                Flake +5.5
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

CALIFORNIA:
Elizabeth Emken                  TR-57  *TR = TrendPo Rank
Dianne Feinstein                  TR-129
TrendPo Rank Difference:     72 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Feinstein +20.8
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

CONNECTICUT:
Linda McMahon                   TR-102 *TR = TrendPo Rank
Chris Murphy                       TR-161
TrendPo Rank Difference:     59 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Murphy +7.0
RCP Poll Average:                Murphy +5.0
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

DELAWARE:
Tom Carper                        TR-333
Kevin Wade                         TR-345
TrendPo Rank Difference:     12 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Carper +35.1
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

FLORIDA:
Connie Mack                        TR-96
Bill Nelson                           TR-303
TrendPo Rank Difference:     207 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Nelson +8.0
RCP Poll Average:                Nelson +6.2
RCP Poll Rankings:               Leans Democrat

HAWAII:
Linda Lingle                        TR- 58
Mazie Hirono                      TR- 447
TrendPo Rank Difference:    389 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Hirono +14.7
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

INDIANA:
Richard Mourdock                TR-19
Joe Donnelly                        TR-101
TrendPo Rank Difference:     82 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Donnelly +2.4
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

MAINE:
Charles Summers                 TR-35
Angus King                          TR-157
Cynthia Dill                          TR-212
TrendPo Rank Difference:     122 / 177 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             King +17.3
RCP Poll Average:                King +17
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MARYLAND:
Ben Cardin                           TR-260
Daniel Bongino                     TR-525
TrendPo Rank Difference:     265 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Cardin +24.1
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MASSACHUSETTS:
Scott Brown                         TR-10
Elizabeth Warren                  TR-502
TrendPo Rank Difference:     492 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Warren +4.4
RCP Poll Average:                Warren +3.0
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

MICHIGAN:
Debbie Stabenow                TR-131
Pete Hoekstra                     TR-245
TrendPo Rank Difference:     114 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Stabenow +13.6
RCP Poll Average:                Stabenow +13.3
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

MINNESOTA:
Amy Klobuchar                   TR-215
Kurt Bills                            TR-469
TrendPo Rank Difference:    254 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Klobuchar 27.4
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MISSISSIPPI:
Thomas Cramer                  TR-162
Roger Wicker                      TR-332
TrendPo Rank Difference:    170 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Wicker +33.3
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

MISSOURI:
Todd Akin                            TR-77
Claire McCaskill                    TR-165
TrendPo Rank Difference:     88 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             McCaskill +6.2
RCP Poll Average:                McCaksill +6.3
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

MONTANA:
Jon Tester                            TR-110
Denny Rehberg                     TR-117
TrendPo Rank Difference:      7 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Rehberg +1.5
RCP Poll Average:                Rehberg +0.4
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

NEBRASKA:
Bob Kerrey                          TR-104
Deb Fischer                         TR-183
TrendPo Rank Difference:     79 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Fischer +7.8
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Leans GOP

NEVADA:
Shelley Berkley                    TR-120
Dean Heller                         TR-151
TrendPo Rank Difference:     31 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Heller +2.9
RCP Poll Average:                Heller +4
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

NEW JERSEY:
Bob Menendez                    TR-408
Joseph Kyrillos                    TR-589
TrendPo Rank Difference:    181 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Menendez +14.9
RCP Poll Average:                Menendez +19.5
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

NEW MEXICO:
Martin Heinrich                    TR-69
Heather Wilson                    TR-263
TrendPo Rank Difference:     194 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Heinrich +6.8
RCP Poll Average:                Heinrich +10.6
RCP Poll Rankings:               Likely Dem

NEW YORK:
Kirsten Gillibrand                 TR-155
Wendy Long                        TR-327
TrendPo Rank Difference:     172 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Gillibrand +37.3
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

NORTH DAKOTA:
Heidi Heitkamp                    TR-106
Rick Berg                            TR-134
TrendPo Rank Difference:     28 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Berg +5.6
RCP Poll Average:                Berg +5.7
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

OHIO:
Josh Mandel                         TR-98
Sherrod Brown                     TR-235
TrendPo Rank Difference:     137 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Brown +5.4
RCP Poll Average:                Brown +5
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

PENNSYLVANIA:
Tom Smith                           TR-133
Bob Casey                           TR-149
TrendPo Rank Difference:     16 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Casey +7.6
RCP Poll Average:                Casey +5.4
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

RHODE ISLAND:
Sheldon Whitehouse             TR-336
Barry Hinckley                      TR-462
TrendPo Rank Difference:     126 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Whitehouse +18.2
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               Safe Democrat

TENNESSEE:
Mark Clayton                       TR-87
Bob Corker                          TR-194
TrendPo Rank Difference:     107 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Corker +26.4
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

TEXAS:
Ted Cruz                             TR-105
Paul Sadler                          TR-279
TrendPo Rank Difference:     174 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Cruz +15.4
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

UTAH:
Orrin Hatch                         TR-178
Scott Howell                        TR-464
TrendPo Rank Difference:     286 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Hatch +35.2
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

VERMONT:
Bernie Sanders                    TR-30
John MacGovern                  TR-456
TrendPo Rank Difference:     426 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Sanders 29.7
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

VIRGINIA:
Tim Kaine                           TR-18
George Allen                       TR-55
TrendPo Rank Difference:     37 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Kaine +3.4
RCP Poll Average:                Kaine +1.8
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

WEST VIRGINIA:
John Raese                         TR-231
Joe Manchin                        TR-234
TrendPo Rank Difference:     3 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Manchin +12
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

WASHINGTON:
Maria Cantwell                    TR-237
Michael Baumgartner           TR-318
TrendPo Rank Difference:     81 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Cantwell +18.2
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

WISCONSIN:
Tammy Baldwin                  TR-59
Tommy Thompson              TR-113
TrendPo Rank Difference:    54 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Baldwin +2.2
RCP Poll Average:                Baldwin +2.2
RCP Poll Rankings:               Toss-up

WYOMING:
John Barrasso                     TR-269
Tim Chesnut                       TR-470
TrendPo Rank Difference:     201 Ranks

538 Blog Prediction:             Barrasso +44.6
RCP Poll Average:                None
RCP Poll Rankings:               None

GALLERY:

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