Hillary Tops Iowa Poll for 2016


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By Becky Hogan

If you’re contemplating a presidential run in 2016, it’s never too early to start using TrendPo’s dashboard to measure your campaign messaging in news media and social platforms.

According to a recent Quinnipac University poll, if the 2016 presidential election was held today in Iowa—often a key battleground state—Hillary Clinton would beat Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) and Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL). The survey showed that Clinton would defeat Rubio 48-37 percent, and surpass Paul 46-42 percent among Iowa voters.

Let’s see how these potential matchups compare in news and social buzz in the dashboard over the past month.

As you may know, TrendPo ranks politicians daily based on how much online buzz candidates receive from national and local news outlets as well as social media sites.

If we look at the TrendPo rankings over the last month, all three potential candidates seem to be getting a lot of buzz and momentum.  Clinton has consistently stayed at the top of the rankings, while both Paul and Rubio have at times plummeted to lower rankings, showing the former Secretary of State has remained relevant in social buzz.

TRENDPO RANK

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Paul dominates the Twitterverse over Rubio and Clinton.  He also recently saw a major upsurge in followers which could be due to his defense of Apple during a recent Senate hearing on their tax practices.  He’s known for his ability to reach younger voters so it’s not surprising that he has a large following on Twitter. It should be noted, however, that Rubio has two Twitter accounts so his presence on Twitter is much broader than shown here.

Clinton has yet to officially join Twitter, however, reports yesterday indicated that she may soon be using the micro-blogging site.  And she’s smart to do so—according to TrendPo’s data from the 2012 election, 84% of candidates who won their races had more Twitter followers than their opponents.

TWITTER FOLLOWERS DAILY CHANGE

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Paul has the largest Facebook presence of the three candidates and is quickly approaching 1 million Likes!  Rubio has about half as many likes as Paul, and Clinton has yet to set up a Facebook page.

FACEBOOK LIKES DAILY CHANGE

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It’s no surprise that all three candidates have gotten a lot of national media attention of the past month.  It seems that Rubio is able to sustain national media attention over longer periods of time, probably due to his recent efforts on immigration reform.  Clinton has gotten a lot of coverage recently as questions have been raised over the handling of the Benghazi attacks.

NATIONAL MEDIA

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Over the past two weeks, Rubio and Paul have seen more attention from Beltway media outlets, although Clinton did get a bump last week as a result of Anthony Weiner’s announcement that he’s running for mayor.

BELTWAY MEDIA

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Overall, Paul is getting a lot of traction across social networks which could indicate that he’s a more promising candidate for the GOP in 2016.

Check back here to see how Clinton amplifies her social media presence in the coming months and to see how the 2016 presidential field is shaping up.

For more content, like us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/TrendPo or follow us on Twitter at www.twitter.com/trendpo.

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